The One Thing That Changed Everything in My Business

When you know your margins and target volumes, the next step is obvious.

You need to forecast.

I know — it sounds basic. Underwhelming even. I felt the same.

Let Me Tell You a Quick Story

One of my earlier businesses was struggling.

We were probably running at a loss (if I’m being honest). Things felt chaotic. I had staff, stock, rent, and stress — but no clear path forward.

So I did what most people in that position do: I looked for advice.
I spoke with mentors. One of them listened to me for a while, asked a few questions, and then said something frustratingly simple:

“You need to forecast.”

That was it. That was his big advice.

At first I thought, That’s it? That’s all you’ve got?
But then I sat down and actually did it — and everything changed.

Forecasting = Clarity

As soon as I built a simple forecast, I could see the path to profitability.

I understood:

• What needed to happen weekly
• What volumes I needed to hit
• Where we were going to run out of capacity
• When to hire, when to push, and when to slow down

It gave me a framework for every decision — and took the panic out of my planning.

How to Forecast (for Real)

You don’t need anything fancy. But you do need to be consistent.

Here’s the approach I use (and recommend to every food business I talk to):

Forecast three scenarios:

1. Best Case – What it looks like when you're killing it!
2. Most Likely – Where you think you'll actually be.
3. Worst Case – What happens when sh*t hits the fan.

This will help you visualise and strategise how to deal with each scenario so you're more prepared.

Then…

Track it at least weekly:

Daily if you’re obsessive. But never less than weekly.

And make decisions based on which scenario you’re in. Because it will change. And if you’re not tracking, you’ll miss the signs.

Hot Tips from Experience

• Share it with your team
  Even if it’s bad. Being transparent builds trust, improves morale, and keeps you accountable. People feel more valuable when they understand the big picture.
• Don’t just forecast revenue
  Forecast capacity, too. Whether you manufacture in-house or with a co-manufacturer, there’s a limit to what you can produce.
  Make sure your sales forecast is actually deliverable.

Don’t Know Where to Start?

We’ve put together a free Excel forecasting template you can download to map out:

• Your next financial year
• Sales scenarios
• Production capacity

Download the free template →
Or automate your forecasting with Supply'd →

This simple tool might be the thing that unlocks clarity for your next 12 months — just like it did for me.